The Big Apple!

In the 1920’s, New York City was the biggest in the world, with a population of more than 7 million people.

And it was around then it became known as the “Big Apple”, which went 1920s viral after a horseracing journalist heard a couple of stableboys using that nickname https://gothamist.com/arts-entertainment/big-apple-nickname-origin-nyc-history.

There’s only one Big Apple in the 2020’s though – and it’s not New York!

The new Big Apple is, well, Apple.

The value of Apple is around £2.2 trillion. The problem is that number is soooo big that it seems meaningless.

Here’s some context to help us understand just how big that number really is - The total value of the one hundred companies in the FTSE 100 is about £2.1 trillion.

This means that Apple is worth 5% MORE (£100 billion) than the entire FTSE 100 Index!

Now, Apple is a brilliantly run company with top quality products and an incredibly loyal customer base, which will be around for a long time (which is why it’s Warren Buffett’s largest holding). But come on!

Last year, Apple had about £320 billion of sales around the world, and turned that into about £76 billion of profit.

But the hundred stocks of the FTSE 100 - Shell and BP and HSBC and GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca and Diageo and Unilever and the rest, had £1.5 trillion of sales! And generated £215 billion of profit!

Maybe it’s because it’s easier to get excited about a single company (iPhones! Airpods! Steve Jobs!) compared to an index (diversification … sectors … dividends).

But things can change. New York lost its crown as the world’s biggest city in the 1960’s. Can Apple stay this big forever…?

Currently, Apple is also ebi’s (Clearwater’s investment partners) biggest holding but at just 1.0353% in Portfolio 50.

I hope you have found this interesting but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

Potential for a huge rally in the stockmarket?

As it is Monday morning, I thought we could all do with a little bit of cheering up. The following is from a piece I was reading at the weekend on the ‘Markets Insider website.

Investors are so bearish on stocks that the market could see a potentially huge rally as the inflation situation improves, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee.

In a note on Monday, Lee pointed to strong bearish sentiment in the stock market, with 41% of investors saying they felt pessimistic on their outlook for stocks over the next six months, according to the latest AAII survey. Lee added that the majority of Fundstrat's institutional investor clients believed the S&P 500 would soon plunge by about 15% to retest its low in October of last year. 

But that's contrary to bullish indicators that are flashing in the market, Lee said, largely due to inflation falling. He forecasted that the benchmark index would actually rise 14% to 4,750 over the next 12 months.

"Investor position is so negative, hard to cause further downside," he said, adding that less sticky inflation would resolve many of the issues that are turning investors so bearish.

Inflation has been on a slow but steady decline for nearly all of the past year, cooling to 4.9% in April's Consumer Price Index report. Though some economists have warned inflation could remain stubborn at 3-4%, Lee has made the case that prices could be set to see a steep drop due to falling indicators like housing costs.

Falling inflation is likely to give the Federal Reserve reason to dial back its tightening of monetary policy which could be bullish for equities.

Though investors are still skittish over recent banking turmoil, the debt ceiling crisis, and a potential corporate earnings recession, falling inflation should resolve many issues markets are fretting about, Lee said.

If you want to keep those positive thoughts for now, I probably wouldn’t read this last paragraph from the same article.

Other Wall Street strategists are still sounding that alarms for this year, with Bank of America warning that the economy could tip into recession as soon as this quarter. Lee, for his part, has been bullish on stocks for most of the past year's bear market, and previously predicted the S&P 500 to hit a new record last year, though the index ultimately notched its worst performance since 2008.

As the famous baseball catcher and later manager, Yogi Berra once supposedly said, "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."

Have a good week everyone.

I hope you have found this interesting but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

The Re-emergence of India

We often think of India as an emerging economy (it wasn’t long ago that it was referred to as ‘third world’), but did you catch this news last week? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-65380148

We won’t ever know the exact date or the precise baby who tipped the scales, but very roughly it now appears that India has overtaken China in terms of population.

It’s been a good couple of years for India in league table terms – in 2022, it overtook the UK in terms of total size of economy – becoming the fifth largest economy in the world.

But, with the right lens applied, this can be seen as just a return to normal for India, after a temporary blip in form.

Looking over 2000 years gives a sense of that … India is in Orange (note that the below chart compresses the first 1500 years due to lack of available data):

Source: “Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1 -2008 AD, Angus Maddison, University of Groningen/7IM

Up until 1700 (the white line on the chart), India was the richest place on Earth, representing about a quarter of global GDP.

For most of human history, economics equalled demographics. The more workers a country had – the more farmers, smiths, hunters etc - the more output it would create. People = power.

Then the industrial revolution came. Suddenly, one man with a machine could do the work of hundreds. And Western economies – the ones with the machines – boomed. It saw two and a half centuries of dominance of small populations over larger ones (sometimes in pretty distasteful ways – although we don’t want to go into a debate about empire/colonialism).

But those 200-year-old benefits are starting to fade. Technology has started to give economic power back to individuals – which means population is starting to matter again.

And by 2050, the top 10 most populated countries will likely include current economic minnows such as Ethiopia, Pakistan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo … Maybe the world order is about to change once again.

I hope you have found this interesting but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.
Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

Surreal Snapshots!

I am indebted to my friends at 7IM for the following, which I found quite fascinating.

A snapshot of financial markets really can record the most remarkable moments.

Last week was the three-year anniversary of one of the strangest financial market events ever.

On 20th April 2020, the price for of the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil contract went negative!

Although this market oddity only lasted a day, it was an extremely visible signal of just how strange the world was during the early days of COVID-19 lockdowns – and a great reminder that in times of panic, financial markets don’t behave rationally.

Here’s another incredible oil-related example from the same period.

In mid-2020, Shell and BP were the fifth and eighth biggest oil companies in the world, between them employing 155,000 people, and generating $199 billion in sales.

At the same time, Zoom Video Communications had 2,700 employees, and was going to do around $620 million in sales in 2020.

Now, of course, 2020 was the year of Zoom. It became one of the key tools in our day to day lives – working, socialising, pub quizzing and so on. Even so, it wasn’t more important than ENERGY!

But investors were panicking, thinking that no-one would ever go outside again – bidding up anything virtual, and selling down anything related to the real world.

Which led to this surreal situation in October 2020 (circled), where Zoom was a $160 billion company, while BP and Shell were worth just $150 billion – combined!!

Source: Bloomberg/7IM

Fast forward to today though – away from the COVID-19 claustrophobia and panic – and markets have re-evaluated.

Video calls are still important, but maybe not the ONLY thing in the world.

Oil is back at around $80, BP and Shell are worth more than $300bn and Zoom is worth around $20bn.

Decisions made in one-off scary or stressful moments are often affected by our emotions. What feels sensible at the time, can end up seeming surreal a few months later …

I hope you have found this interesting but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

Volatility Update

Markets remain volatile in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the emergency loan given to Credit Suisse by the Swiss Central bank, and this really isn’t surprising, markets hate a crisis of confidence.

By way of reassurance, I just thought I would share with you a couple of paragraphs from an update I have just received from Scottish Widows, in response to this renewed volatility:

What does it mean for our investors and our portfolios?

The issues that have arisen over the past couple of weeks appear to be contained in several US regional banks, and in our view, any troubles these firms are experiencing do not represent a systemic problem for investments globally. But these events have served to highlight how uncertainty can cause volatility in financial markets, particularly as they have come in the wake of the significant investment rises and falls that we have seen for several years.

While we understand that when market falls occur, they are unsettling for investors, we believe it's important not to panic and react hastily. As such, while we continue to assess events, we are maintaining a focus on our long-term approach to investing - an approach that we believe leads to better investment outcomes.

Notwithstanding any current volatility and challenges for investment markets, we still have confidence in the outlook for returns over the long term. Risks or volatility in one investment type, or one region, tend to be smoothed out by the moves in others. This effect could be seen in markets in recent days; when equities declined on the back of news about Credit Suisse and SVB, many government bonds rose in value. This is why diversification is key.

We are not making any asset allocation changes on the back of the market moves we have seen this month. Furthermore, we do not expect there to be any fundamental changes to the long-term returns or volatility of investment asset classes. We are maintaining our investment discipline and long-term investment focus. This is because our experience shows that markets tend to return to growth over the longer term.

If you would like a copy of the Scottish Widows update, please do let me know.

Have an enjoyable weekend.

I hope you have found this helpful but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

The Lifetime Allowance (LTA) has Gone!

Thank goodness for that!

This was possibly the most ill-conceived tax I have seen introduced in my lifetime and I have been encouraging clients to continue their funding, firmly in the belief that common sense would prevail, and it would eventually go.

The LTA was much misunderstood, it led to poor decision making and ultimately led to poor outcomes. I know of people who stopped funding their pensions as they approached this limit and some who even declined employer contributions into their schemes.

It was also a tax that penalised those who adopted a sensible investment strategy. I have had clients ask whether they should move their pension fund into cash once they hit the limit, so as not to incur a tax charge by benefitting from further investment growth? Pension funds are invested in shares and bonds, a vital driver of the economy, a tax that discourages this behaviour is a very ill-thought-out tax indeed.   

When it was introduced, it was expected that it would be successful businesspeople and the wealthy in general who would be affected but, because of the incredibly generous nature of Public Sector pension schemes, it also hit doctors, consultants, senior police officers and senior military ranks; the law of unintended consequences at work.

Let’s be clear, the ONLY reason this tax has been rescinded is because of the impact on highly valued Public Sector employees, and it is for this reason that opposition parties are unlikely to oppose it in the way they would if it were just the ‘wealthy’ that would be seen to benefit.

It’s tempting to say, ‘well this won’t affect many people’ but, over time, fiscal drag (the freezing of allowances) would have seen more and more people dragged into the net and I am glad that it is gone.

When/if Labour win the next General Election, it is possible that they could reinstate this tax and this means I will be having conversations with clients over the next 18 months about whether there is now a window of opportunity for them to crystallise their benefits to reduce tax in case a reinstatement was to happen.

I have yet to fully digest the implications of this unexpected change so watch this space.    

I hope you have found this helpful but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – Further Update

Following my e-mail of yesterday, concerning the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank over the weekend, EBI (our investment partners) have produced some additional commentary which you might find interesting; please click on the link below:

EBI Market Update - Silicon Valley Bank


You may need to press Ctrl and click at the same time to open this.

As I am typing, the FTSE 100 in the UK is up 1.13% and the S&P 500 in the US is up 2.03%, erasing at least some of the last couple of days losses. For now at least, widespread contagion seems unlikely.  

I hope you have found this helpful but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – Don’t Panic!

Some of the comment below has come from The New York Post.

On Friday, Silicon Valley Bank, a lender to some of the biggest names in the technology world, became the largest bank to fail since the 2008 financial crisis.

Silicon Valley Bank provided banking services to nearly half of the country’s venture capital-backed technology and life-science companies, according to its website, and to over 2,500 venture capital firms. Its swift collapse has sent shock waves through the tech industry, Wall Street and Washington.

Here’s what we know so far about this developing story and what brought Silicon Valley Bank to this point.

In a nutshell, the bank took on too many huge deposits, and it was caught by higher interest rates.

Flush with cash from start-ups, Silicon Valley Bank did what most of its rivals do: It kept a small chunk of its deposits in cash, and it used the rest to buy long-term debt like Treasury bonds. Those investments promised steady, modest returns when interest rates remained low. But they were, it turned out, short-sighted. The bank hadn’t considered what was happening in the broader economy, which was overheated after more than a year of pandemic stimulus.

This meant that Silicon Valley Bank was caught in the lurch when the Federal Reserve, looking to combat rapid inflation, started raising interest rates. Those once-safe investments looked a lot less attractive as newer government bonds offered higher rates of interest. You may remember from some of my previous e-mails, the relationship between Bond prices and interest rates – higher interest rates in the wider economy hit Bond prices hard as the fixed income offered from each previously issued Bond becomes less attractive; the Bonds can stll be traded, but at much lower prices.

In what would ultimately spell trouble for the bank, start-up funding was also starting to dwindle, leading Silicon Valley Bank’s clients, a mixture of technology start-ups and their executives, to begin withdrawing their money. To meet its customers’ requests, the bank had to sell some of its Bond investments at a steep discount. This obviously undermines the financial security of the bank, depending on the value of its remaining investments.

But not all Silicon Valley Bank’s problems are linked to rising interest rates. The bank was unique in ways that contributed to its rapid demise. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation only insures amounts up to $250,000, so anything more than that would not have the same government protection. Silicon Valley Bank had a significant number of big and uninsured depositors — the kind of investors who tend to withdraw their money during signs of turbulence.

Once Silicon Valley revealed its huge loss last Wednesday, the tech industry panicked, and start-ups rushed to pull out their money.

By late last week, Silicon Valley Bank was in free fall. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced on Friday that it would take over the 40-year-old institution, after the bank and its financial advisers had tried — and failed — to find a buyer to step in. The takeover put about $175 billion in customer deposits under the control of the federal regulator.

The bank’s failure has raised concerns about other institutions.

Silicon Valley Bank is small compared with the nation’s largest banks — its $209 billion in assets pales next to the more than $3 trillion at JPMorgan Chase. But bank runs can happen when customers or investors panic and start pulling their deposits. Perhaps the most immediate concern late this week was that the failure of Silicon Valley Bank would scare off customers of other banks.

Shares of both First Republic Bank, which is based in San Francisco, and Signature Bank in New York were down more than 20 percent on Friday. But shares of some of the nation’s largest banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup did not suffer the same fate, and even nudged higher on Friday.

Since the weekend Signature Bank has also been taken under the protective wing of the FDIC.

Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell, and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg released a joint statement on Sunday evening outlining what they say are decisive actions to protect the US economy and strengthen public confidence in the banking system.

“After receiving a recommendation from the boards of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve, and consulting with the President, Secretary Yellen approved actions enabling the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, in a manner that fully protects all depositors,” the statement reads.

“Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.”

A similar systemic risk exception has also been put in place for Signature Bank of New York.

Viewers of the BBC will also know that the govt. here in the UK, has brokered a deal allowing HSBC to purchase SVB UK, protecting the investments and cashflows of many of the UK’s tech startup companies.

The speed of response both in the US and in the UK clearly demonstrates that lessons have been learned from the 2008 Financial Crisis, confidence in the financial system is sacrosanct and must be preserved at all costs. In a way this rather renders the deposit protection schemes ($250k in the US and £85k in the UK) somewhat redundant. In the end, govts. know they cannot allow customer facing financial institutions to fail because the risk to the overall financial system would be too great.

The Financial Crisis and the response to it, should have made the whole system much safer, so how can it be that SVB has been allowed to invest to heavily in govt. Bonds? Where was the oversight? Essentially SVB was gambling with its clients’ money that interest rates would remain permanently low. Economics 101 and a cursory glance at the history books should have exposed the naivety of this position.

Market movements today will tell us how successful the interventions have been, but with all depositors protected, it should be business as usual, following perhaps a little volatility.

It will be interesting to see whether the problems caused by the rapid rise in interest rates will cause the Fed and the Bank of England to slow down the pace of rises, even in the face of stubbornly high inflation.

I hope you have found this helpful but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

Is London's stock market losing its lustre? - BBC News

This very brief piece is a follow-up from my e-mail on performance on Friday.

In my earlier note I referenced how unusual it has been to see the UK market outperform other global markets and that this likely temporary situation is almost exclusively down to the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. In this article on the BBC website (see link below), Business Editor Simon Jack discusses how interest in the UK as a place to list companies has dramatically declined over the past few years and the reasons behind it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64833390

 A key couple of sentences in the article are as follows:

 “UK investors are also shunning UK listed companies. Over the past two decades, the percentage of UK pension fund assets invested in UK companies has fallen from over 40% to under 5%. They too prefer to do their shopping abroad.”

The purpose of highlighting this article is to reaffirm a widely accepted view that the UK’s recent outperformance is likely to be short-lived and that more globally diversified portfolios have better prospects when it comes to delivering consistent returns.

I hope you find the article interesting but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

Performance Comparison

The performance of our portfolios since the beginning of 2022 has been disappointing, this will not come as news to anyone who monitors their investments on a regular basis. However, in drawing any conclusions about this, it is important to remember that our investments are all made into the same markets as everyone else, this means that unless you are the Ponzi King, Bernie Madoff (there is a fabulous documentary about Madoff on Netflix), everyone else is facing the same difficulties.

These headwinds are well documented, War in Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis, rampant inflation and aggressive monetary tightening by central banks – trust me, it is hard to perform well against this backdrop.

Evidence of this can be seen below:

The Vantage Earth Portfolios run by our Discretionary Manager EBI, have not performed well BUT they have outperformed similar portfolios run by one of the most respected investment managers in the world, Vanguard. I have chosen Vanguard as a comparator simply because they risk rate their portfolios in the same way as EBI.  

EBI have achieved this relative outperformance by focussing on various additional factors, including small tilts to emerging markets, small caps, global short-dated bonds, and high profit companies. AND this outperformance has been achieved with EBI’s focus on Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) issues.

The only market that has performed surprisingly well over the last year or so, is the UK, but this is not typical. For many years the FTSE 100, the index of the largest 100 companies in the UK, has lagged the indices that track US and global markets, but this year, the extraordinary profits made by Oil and Gas titans have bolstered the UK’s performance. For this outperformance by the UK to continue indefinitely, we would have to believe that the future (partially) lies in the world of fossil fuels, and I think we can all agree, that seems unlikely. Let’s all hope that the conditions that have allowed these companies to do well, namely the war in Ukraine, do not last too much longer.

The following chart shows how the FTSE 100 has significantly outperformed the MSCI World Index (which most closely matches the diverse nature of the equity content of the EBI portfolios) and the S&P 500, the main US Index.

Now let’s look at the last 5 years, including the period of outperformance by the UK since 1st Jan 2022.

Even with this recent period of outperformance by the UK, the FTSE 100 still lags way behind global equity markets when we look at a more extended time period, and this is why the EBI portfolios are globally diversified, and not overweight in the UK.  

Over 20 years the picture is even more stark.

Despite this recent period of disappointing performance, there is no evidence that would support a change in approach by Clearwater or EBI, as always, patience is the key!

I hope you have found this missive of interest and maybe reassurance but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner