Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – Don’t Panic!

Some of the comment below has come from The New York Post.

On Friday, Silicon Valley Bank, a lender to some of the biggest names in the technology world, became the largest bank to fail since the 2008 financial crisis.

Silicon Valley Bank provided banking services to nearly half of the country’s venture capital-backed technology and life-science companies, according to its website, and to over 2,500 venture capital firms. Its swift collapse has sent shock waves through the tech industry, Wall Street and Washington.

Here’s what we know so far about this developing story and what brought Silicon Valley Bank to this point.

In a nutshell, the bank took on too many huge deposits, and it was caught by higher interest rates.

Flush with cash from start-ups, Silicon Valley Bank did what most of its rivals do: It kept a small chunk of its deposits in cash, and it used the rest to buy long-term debt like Treasury bonds. Those investments promised steady, modest returns when interest rates remained low. But they were, it turned out, short-sighted. The bank hadn’t considered what was happening in the broader economy, which was overheated after more than a year of pandemic stimulus.

This meant that Silicon Valley Bank was caught in the lurch when the Federal Reserve, looking to combat rapid inflation, started raising interest rates. Those once-safe investments looked a lot less attractive as newer government bonds offered higher rates of interest. You may remember from some of my previous e-mails, the relationship between Bond prices and interest rates – higher interest rates in the wider economy hit Bond prices hard as the fixed income offered from each previously issued Bond becomes less attractive; the Bonds can stll be traded, but at much lower prices.

In what would ultimately spell trouble for the bank, start-up funding was also starting to dwindle, leading Silicon Valley Bank’s clients, a mixture of technology start-ups and their executives, to begin withdrawing their money. To meet its customers’ requests, the bank had to sell some of its Bond investments at a steep discount. This obviously undermines the financial security of the bank, depending on the value of its remaining investments.

But not all Silicon Valley Bank’s problems are linked to rising interest rates. The bank was unique in ways that contributed to its rapid demise. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation only insures amounts up to $250,000, so anything more than that would not have the same government protection. Silicon Valley Bank had a significant number of big and uninsured depositors — the kind of investors who tend to withdraw their money during signs of turbulence.

Once Silicon Valley revealed its huge loss last Wednesday, the tech industry panicked, and start-ups rushed to pull out their money.

By late last week, Silicon Valley Bank was in free fall. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced on Friday that it would take over the 40-year-old institution, after the bank and its financial advisers had tried — and failed — to find a buyer to step in. The takeover put about $175 billion in customer deposits under the control of the federal regulator.

The bank’s failure has raised concerns about other institutions.

Silicon Valley Bank is small compared with the nation’s largest banks — its $209 billion in assets pales next to the more than $3 trillion at JPMorgan Chase. But bank runs can happen when customers or investors panic and start pulling their deposits. Perhaps the most immediate concern late this week was that the failure of Silicon Valley Bank would scare off customers of other banks.

Shares of both First Republic Bank, which is based in San Francisco, and Signature Bank in New York were down more than 20 percent on Friday. But shares of some of the nation’s largest banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup did not suffer the same fate, and even nudged higher on Friday.

Since the weekend Signature Bank has also been taken under the protective wing of the FDIC.

Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell, and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg released a joint statement on Sunday evening outlining what they say are decisive actions to protect the US economy and strengthen public confidence in the banking system.

“After receiving a recommendation from the boards of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve, and consulting with the President, Secretary Yellen approved actions enabling the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, in a manner that fully protects all depositors,” the statement reads.

“Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.”

A similar systemic risk exception has also been put in place for Signature Bank of New York.

Viewers of the BBC will also know that the govt. here in the UK, has brokered a deal allowing HSBC to purchase SVB UK, protecting the investments and cashflows of many of the UK’s tech startup companies.

The speed of response both in the US and in the UK clearly demonstrates that lessons have been learned from the 2008 Financial Crisis, confidence in the financial system is sacrosanct and must be preserved at all costs. In a way this rather renders the deposit protection schemes ($250k in the US and £85k in the UK) somewhat redundant. In the end, govts. know they cannot allow customer facing financial institutions to fail because the risk to the overall financial system would be too great.

The Financial Crisis and the response to it, should have made the whole system much safer, so how can it be that SVB has been allowed to invest to heavily in govt. Bonds? Where was the oversight? Essentially SVB was gambling with its clients’ money that interest rates would remain permanently low. Economics 101 and a cursory glance at the history books should have exposed the naivety of this position.

Market movements today will tell us how successful the interventions have been, but with all depositors protected, it should be business as usual, following perhaps a little volatility.

It will be interesting to see whether the problems caused by the rapid rise in interest rates will cause the Fed and the Bank of England to slow down the pace of rises, even in the face of stubbornly high inflation.

I hope you have found this helpful but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

Is London's stock market losing its lustre? - BBC News

This very brief piece is a follow-up from my e-mail on performance on Friday.

In my earlier note I referenced how unusual it has been to see the UK market outperform other global markets and that this likely temporary situation is almost exclusively down to the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. In this article on the BBC website (see link below), Business Editor Simon Jack discusses how interest in the UK as a place to list companies has dramatically declined over the past few years and the reasons behind it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64833390

 A key couple of sentences in the article are as follows:

 “UK investors are also shunning UK listed companies. Over the past two decades, the percentage of UK pension fund assets invested in UK companies has fallen from over 40% to under 5%. They too prefer to do their shopping abroad.”

The purpose of highlighting this article is to reaffirm a widely accepted view that the UK’s recent outperformance is likely to be short-lived and that more globally diversified portfolios have better prospects when it comes to delivering consistent returns.

I hope you find the article interesting but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

Performance Comparison

The performance of our portfolios since the beginning of 2022 has been disappointing, this will not come as news to anyone who monitors their investments on a regular basis. However, in drawing any conclusions about this, it is important to remember that our investments are all made into the same markets as everyone else, this means that unless you are the Ponzi King, Bernie Madoff (there is a fabulous documentary about Madoff on Netflix), everyone else is facing the same difficulties.

These headwinds are well documented, War in Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis, rampant inflation and aggressive monetary tightening by central banks – trust me, it is hard to perform well against this backdrop.

Evidence of this can be seen below:

The Vantage Earth Portfolios run by our Discretionary Manager EBI, have not performed well BUT they have outperformed similar portfolios run by one of the most respected investment managers in the world, Vanguard. I have chosen Vanguard as a comparator simply because they risk rate their portfolios in the same way as EBI.  

EBI have achieved this relative outperformance by focussing on various additional factors, including small tilts to emerging markets, small caps, global short-dated bonds, and high profit companies. AND this outperformance has been achieved with EBI’s focus on Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) issues.

The only market that has performed surprisingly well over the last year or so, is the UK, but this is not typical. For many years the FTSE 100, the index of the largest 100 companies in the UK, has lagged the indices that track US and global markets, but this year, the extraordinary profits made by Oil and Gas titans have bolstered the UK’s performance. For this outperformance by the UK to continue indefinitely, we would have to believe that the future (partially) lies in the world of fossil fuels, and I think we can all agree, that seems unlikely. Let’s all hope that the conditions that have allowed these companies to do well, namely the war in Ukraine, do not last too much longer.

The following chart shows how the FTSE 100 has significantly outperformed the MSCI World Index (which most closely matches the diverse nature of the equity content of the EBI portfolios) and the S&P 500, the main US Index.

Now let’s look at the last 5 years, including the period of outperformance by the UK since 1st Jan 2022.

Even with this recent period of outperformance by the UK, the FTSE 100 still lags way behind global equity markets when we look at a more extended time period, and this is why the EBI portfolios are globally diversified, and not overweight in the UK.  

Over 20 years the picture is even more stark.

Despite this recent period of disappointing performance, there is no evidence that would support a change in approach by Clearwater or EBI, as always, patience is the key!

I hope you have found this missive of interest and maybe reassurance but, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

A Quick Quiz!

Who are the two people below?

Source: Paul Souders and Drew Angerer/Getty Images

You probably know who the guy on the left is.

  • Jeff Bezos.

  • Ran a very successful US-based consumer business, which he retired from in the last 18 months.

  • A company which you definitely know and probably use. And which has been one of the great investment success stories of recent times.

 But what about the guy on the right-hand side?

  • Roger Whiteside.

  • Ran a very successful UK-based consumer business, which he retired from in the last 18 months.

  • A company which you definitely know and probably use. And which has been one of the great investment success stories of recent times.

There are no points for identifying Amazon’s CEO. But if you knew that Roger Whiteside ran Greggs, well done, because I didn’t!

So, here’s the real question:

Knowing what you know of both businesses, who would you have invested with 10 years ago in order to maximise your returns over the decade?

You probably knew this was coming it’s not Jeff!

If you’d bought Amazon shares on 1st Jan 2013, you’d be sitting on a gain of 675% as of last Friday (17th Feb 2023).

But Greggs delivered a gain of 699% over the same period!

Source: Bloomberg, 31/12/2012 to 17/02/2023

One company redefined global online retail. The other delivered surprisingly good vegan sausage rolls.

As always, as the chart above shows, everything depends on the luck of timing because if you had cashed in your Amazon shares in late 2021, the result would have been very different.

Of course – disclaimer alert – we are not recommending that you invest in either stock (unless as part of a diversified portfolio), but it is a great reminder that market-beating returns don’t always have to come with space-hopping Silicon Valley billionaires. Delivering cheap, tasty food to hungry commuters worked just as well …

As always, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

It’s That Time of the Year Again!

As we approach the end of the 2022/23 tax-year, thoughts inevitably turn to end of year tax planning and any unused allowances (ISA, Pensions etc.) that may be available.

The ISA allowance for 2022/23 is £20,000 and if you have not made a subscription (or perhaps you have only made a part subscription), there is still time to use this allowance if you have the funds available.

Since 6th April 2016, in addition to the subscription, it has been possible to top-up ISAs by any amounts withdrawn during the tax-year, including any charges deducted. This means that even if you have not made a subscription this year but have ISAs from previous years, your personal ISA Allowance may be more than £20,000 because of charges deducted during the year. If you made a subscription at the beginning of the tax-year, you may still have a residual allowance left because of these deductions which can be utilised by 5th April 2023.

If you have a Standard Life Wrap Account, the scope for top-up (in addition to any unused subscription) does not apply, unless you take physical withdrawals from your ISA. This is because Standard Life deduct ISA charges from the cash held in your Portfolio and not from the ISA itself.

If you have a Transact Wrap Account and you would like to know your personal ISA allowance for the remainder of the 2022/23 tax year, you can access this information on the Transact website. From your home page, select reports and from the drop-down menu, select ISA Subscriptions.

If you would like to use the balance of your allowance before 5th April, please ensure you advise us of your intentions before the end of March; we will be very pleased to assist.

Just for information, the ISA Allowance for 2023/24 is likely to remain £20,000 each, so £40,000 per couple. There is a Budget on 15th April, however, so this could change.

Capital Gains Tax (CGT)   

Currently, rates for CGT are 10% for Basic Rate Taxpayers and 20% for Higher Rate Taxpayers, where property assets are concerned (excluding the main residence) the rates are 18% and 28% respectively. There is an allowance each year (currently) of £12,300 before CGT becomes payable. You may recall that in Jeremy Hunt’s emergency Budget last year he announced that CGT allowances will reduce to £6,000 in 2023/24 and then reduce further to just £3,000 in 2024/25.

Income Tax rates of course, are 20%,40% and 45%, so quite a bit higher than taxes on capital gains!

It might be sensible to at least consider using this year’s CGT allowance before the end of the Tax Year. If you do wish to look into this, please do let us know and we will try to assist.

If you have a General Investment Account (GIA) with us worth more than £250k, we will be contacting you individually over the course of the next couple of weeks or so.   

Many of our clients will not need to take any action, as most assets are held within ISAs and Pensions, where CGT does not apply.

As always, if you have any questions about this piece or any other finance related matter, please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Yours sincerely

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

The Cruel Law of Percentages

I am grateful to a friend at 7IM for some of the following:

This news story was everywhere last week (in near identical form).

Let’s not talk about whether Facebook Meta is going to rise or fall in the next few months though….because we have no way of knowing (and neither does anybody else). Instead, let’s talk about how we think about gains and losses. Because in finance we talk in percentages all the time.

“FTSE 100 up x%. Gilts down y%. Portfolio returns are z%.“

But humans don't intuitively work in percentages. We can just about deal with "10% discounts" in a shop, but the minute it gets into "17% rise, followed by a 12% fall", our brains start to struggle.

And, as tends to happen when we’re struggling, we oversimplify.

"Up 50% and then down 50% – sounds like it's back where it started ..."

"Down 30%, up 35% – must be higher than before ..."

But that simplification is wrong. And sometimes really wrong.

The chart below shows the reality. And as it's a picture, the brain understands it more easily.

It’s not so complicated when we take a moment to think about it, if £100,000 falls in value by 50% to £50,000, then that £50,000 must double (increase by 100%) to get back to £100,000.

Bringing it back to Meta, and its soaring share price last week.

Since the start of 2022, the stock is still down 45%.

So, glancing at the chart above, it needs another 80% gain to get back to where it was.

Suddenly that 20% day doesn’t seem like nearly enough! Unless of course you happened to buy the stock after it had suffered the worst of the falls.

Volatility of this magnitude is not uncommon with individual stocks that fall into and often spectacularly, out of favour seemingly overnight, but it is less common with a highly diversified portfolio. This is because the economic conditions negatively impacting a particular stock are almost certainly simultaneously positively impacting another; one business’s weakness will often be another’s strength. A diversified portfolio recognises this, leading to a smoother, if not always a positive investment experience. The positive experience comes with fortitude and patience on behalf of the investor.  

As always, if you have any concerns about your own financial arrangements or would like to discuss whether you are truly making the most of your money, please do not hesitate to call me.

With kind regards,

Yours sincerely

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered FCSI

Managing Partner

 

A Market Review of 2022

As the seemingly interminable month of January finally draws to a close, I thought you might be interested in the Market Review of 2022 which has just been published by our investment partners, Evidence Based Investments (EBI).

It’s a reasonably accessible document which looks at the major actors that influenced the global economy and market returns over the 12 months to the end of 2022.

The link below will take you to the review.

EBI 2022 Market Review

As always, if you have any concerns about your own financial arrangements or would like to discuss whether you are truly making the most of your money, please do not hesitate to call me.

With kind regards,

Yours sincerely

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered FCSI

Managing Partner

 

A New Locum for Clearwater!

Firstly, a very Happy New Year (if it’s not already too late to be saying that), I do hope you had a relaxing and enjoyable Christmas.

As an inevitable consequence of marching time, I am, rather regrettably, starting to look my age and this has prompted several clients to ask, ‘What would happen to our financial arrangements if anything happened to you?’ It is a very fair question, none of us know how long we have and why should I be immune from the illnesses and accidents that do sadly befall others.

So, I just want to reassure you, by sharing with you the plans we have in place should such a catastrophe occur.

In the first instance of course, Kim and Adam, are here to help; they know you and the plans we have built with and for you. They will, therefore, be able to respond to any immediate enquiries you may have. Together we have built your financial plans for the long term, and it is unlikely anything occurring to me in the short term, should affect them.

However, in the event of a longer-term absence, it is vital that you continue to have support from a similarly well-qualified financial planner. I have therefore sought to find another adviser who could step in to help if needed. My priority has been to find an adviser who works in the same way we do, has the same experience and qualifications as I do and is familiar with the same systems and solutions we use and recommend. They would need to be able to hit the ground running if it came to it and with minimum disruption to you.

After a fruitful search I have found such a firm, Financial Planning Partners Ltd, run by brothers David and Andy Hearne. They are both Chartered Financial Planners who have each been in the financial planning profession for over 20 years. Based nearby in Berkshire, their business provides a virtually identical service to ours and as a result, I am confident that David and Andy, would be able to provide an excellent continuation of service to all our clients.

From their side, David said the following: ‘I’ve known Graham for a number of years and as Certified and Chartered Financial Planners we are both dedicated to providing the best independent advice and financial planning service to all clients. Graham and I have found ourselves mixing in the same circles, using the same services, and recommending the same solutions and this feels like a very good fit. We hope we won’t ever be required, but we are ready and willing to help if needed.’

David was recently awarded the Certified Financial Planner of the Year 2022 at the CISI Financial Planning awards. Of course, I hope nothing untoward happens to me that requires his help, but I am confident that Financial Planning Partners, with the ongoing help of Adam and Kim, will be ready to step up in a worst-case scenario.

If you had any concerns about this issue, I hope this reassures you that we do have robust plans in place.

As always, if you have any concerns about your own financial arrangements or would like to discuss whether you are truly making the most of your money, please do not hesitate to call me.

With kind regards,

Yours sincerely

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered FCSI

Managing Partner

 

Festive Greetings!!!

Adam, Kim and I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your continued support and of course to wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

At this time last year, I wrote the following:

“Who could have imagined at around Christmas time in 2019 what was soon to follow? A global pandemic that in some way or another has affected all of us and those we hold dear.”

Well, just as we thought we might be in for a recovery period following COVID, we have once again been knocked sideways by a War in Ukraine, an energy crisis, the like of which we haven’t seen since the 1970s and roaring inflation, which has wrong footed central banks …… again! I think it’s safe to say that 2022 has been another difficult year for everyone and yet all my wonderful clients and indeed family and friends have continued to face the challenges of living in such uncertain times with good humour and pragmatism!

As with quite a number of years now, in lieu of sending individual Christmas cards, we have decided to make a donation to a worthy cause.

I lost a dear friend, Den, earlier this year and at his funeral his sons spoke movingly of his very humble background in Liverpool. Den’s father died while he was very young and his mother struggled to cope on her own, something which I imagine was quite common in those days. One day, his closest school friend Pete said to his own mum, ‘Can Den come and live with us?’ He was thus taken in by another family without an adoption certificate in sight, a post War 1950s’ community at work.

Den went on to have a very successful career with United Biscuits and latterly running his own business, Imagine Consultants, named after his beloved Beatles, whose songs he would sing loudly at every possible opportunity.

When his beloved wife, Pat, succumbed to early onset Dementia, Den stepped up to the plate like a true champion, caring for her selflessly until eventually this was no longer possible; he was devastated by her passing in 2021.

He was a great skiing and cycling companion, he was a deep thinker, a wicked storyteller and a very compassionate man who cared greatly for those who were less fortunate than himself.

The picture below is of badges that his sons had made up for us all to wear at the funeral. I can say, without contradiction, that if we were indeed all ‘More Den’, the world would be a happier place.

At his funeral, Den’s family asked for donations in lieu of flowers to go to The Salvation Army, an organisation which meant a great deal to him and they are our chosen charity this year, I do hope you will approve.

I do hope 2023 brings you all you would wish for and, of course, a resolution to the war in Ukraine.

With very best Christmas wishes,

Yours sincerely

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI

Managing Partner

 

Just How Bad is the Energy Situation in Europe?

I am always fascinated when I read something that seems contra to the narrative we are being fed by the mainstream media and what follows really did have me scratching my head. If we are to believe what we are being told by the BBC etc. we are in the middle of a very serious energy crisis, supplies of gas to Europe have been restricted because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the closing of the Nord Stream pipelines; resulting in incredibly high prices and threats of blackouts etc. BUT, maybe things aren’t quite as they seem.

The following is taken from a communication I received yesterday from 7IM Investment Management.  

“The English Channel is the busiest shipping lane in the world; more than 500 ships a day pass between Dover and Calais.

It’s even busier at the moment, because there are over 60 tankers moored smack bang in the middle – the red dots on the map below.

More than half of these are carrying Liquified Natural Gas, waiting to deposit it into specialist terminals in the UK, France, Belgium and the Netherlands – those green triangles.

Some of them have been bobbing around there for over a month.

But if we have an energy crisis, why aren’t these ships unloading? Is supply and demand dead?!

Source: 7IM/Bloomberg/ https://www.marinetraffic.com/

Well, no. Economics isn’t broken. It’s just really difficult!

There are two things at play here.

First, October 2022 was seriously warm – the seventh hottest since 1884. The mean temperature across the UK was 11.5°C, nearly 2% warmer than normal. In London on 29th October, it was 23°C! Lots of those tankers started their journeys (from the US or Qatar) expecting Europe to have already started turning on the central heating. But we didn’t. So, our day-to-day demand was lower.

Second, the campaign to stockpile gas ahead of the winter has been extremely successful – see the table below. Europe’s storage is at 94% of total capacity - with the understandable exception of Ukraine. That stored gas accounts for nearly one third of normal annual consumption for Europe, so those tankers aren’t needed yet.

Now, we don’t know how cold this winter will be. Or how windy it will be. Or what will happen with Russia. Commodity prices are influenced by so many external factors, it means any statements about gas prices in the next few months (higher or lower) should be treated with extreme caution. 

PS.

The data on Marine Traffic is incredible.

Just look below at the “Pleasure Craft”; all yachts leaving the Mediterranean and heading for the Caribbean for the winter …

Not at all relevant for investing, more for reasons of envy …

Source: 7IM/Wikimedia Commons/ https://www.marinetraffic.com/

I do hope you found the above as interesting as I did.

As always, if you have any concerns about your own financial arrangements or would like to discuss whether you are truly making the most of your money, please do not hesitate to call me.

With kind regards,

Yours sincerely

Graham Ponting CFP Chartered FCSI

Managing Partner