In amongst all of the doom and gloom surrounding coronavirus, there is perhaps a little bit of light shining in the tunnel, we don’t know yet whether it’s just somebody with a torch in the middle and it’s still really dark in there or whether it genuinely is daylight at the end. However, as talk turns to curves flattening and lockdown restrictions easing, markets have begun to recover, albeit in fits and starts.
Why is there even talk of easing lockdown restrictions at the moment, when the death toll is still so high? Well let’s take a look at this first chart which is something I have been sharing on my personal Facebook page, it shows the daily number of deaths from COVID-19 in the UK since 10th March and it also highlights the Rolling 7 Day Average. The numbers are still high (and by the way, this chart includes deaths from all settings, not just hospitals) but there is a very clear ‘flattening of the curve’. The government advisers think this shows that the impositions of the lockdown and the enforced social distancing measures have worked, which by extension means we have some control over this virus and its spread.
This is of course, a cold analysis of statistics and we must not forget that each one of these deaths represents a tragedy for a family somewhere in the country.
This flattening of the curve is good news and points to a possible relaxation of restrictions in the not too distant future. Markets like good news and the next chart shows the performance of a range of the Clearwater Portfolios since March 23rd which was the lowest point for markets (so far).
That’s quite some growth in just a 5 week or so period BUT we need to keep this mini recovery in context and the chart below shows the full 3 months from 29th January, which includes the period shown above.
So, in conclusion (I know one shouldn’t start a sentence with a conjunction but I am being colloquial), we have still got a long way to go and whichever way one looks at it, this recovery is fragile and any bad news (worse than expected economic data, failed vaccine trails etc.), could see us test new lows in this bear market.
Here’s hoping for some good news soon.
As always, please do feel free to call me at any time to discuss anything that might be concerning you.
With best regards,
Yours sincerely
Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI
Managing Partner
