I have just received a 24-page document from AVIVA which sets out their House View on a number of issues, including thoughts on risk, investment themes, global macro outlook and asset allocation. Clearly, there is far too much information to include in one of my ‘round robin’ e-mails but I thought you might find a couple of the major highlights interesting.
I have summarised a few of the key points below:
- Above trend global growth expected to continue.
- Recent moderation in inflation expected to be temporary.
- Risk of increased volatility as central banks reduce liquidity.
- We favour equities over bonds, but are conscious of stretched valuations in some markets.
- We are cautious on corporate credit, where spreads are tight.
- Global environment expected to support positive carry currency strategies
- Unwinding a decade of extraordinary monetary policy continues.
- Fundamentals to matter more going forward.
- Eurozone equities, emerging markets and local currency debt among preferred assets.
- Strong underweight on developed market fixed income, overweight US Treasuries to balance portfolio risk.
- Global markets at a crossroads as market structures inherited from the ‘QE decade begin to normalise.
Please remember these are AVIVA’s views, not mine and they do not constitute advice in any way.
If you would like a copy of the full report, please let me know; I should warn you, it is not exactly bedtime reading!
If you have any concerns or questions about any finance related matter, please do not hesitate to call me at any time.
With best wishes,
Yours sincerely
Graham Ponting CFP Chartered MCSI
Managing Partner
